US Election -> Polls
270toWin
- Long-established poll aggregator
- Simple straightforward way of aggregating polls
270toWin Poll Average in the PollyVote
The 270toWin Poll Average presents publicly available opinion polls without weighting them based on sample size or recency. It maintains transparency by using the most recent poll from each relevant pollster within the last 30 days, with a cap of five polls. If five polls are identified, any additional eligible polls conducted on the same date are also incorporated.
PollyVote translates the two-party shares derived from the 270toWin poll average for Biden and Trump into its poll component. Furthermore, PollyVote utilizes past differences between a typical poll average and final vote shares to calculate 80% empirical confidence intervals around the predicted vote shares.