Crowd forecasting

Crowd forecasting, also known as collective intelligence forecasting, involves aggregating the predictions or judgments of a diverse group of individuals to arrive at a consensus or collective estimate of the likelihood of future events.

The process typically begins with posing specific questions about future events or outcomes. These questions could relate to politics, economics, sports, entertainment, or any area where predictions are sought.

People are invited or self-select and participate in making predictions. The individual predictions are then aggregated to form a collective forecast. Various methods can be used for aggregation, such as statistical aggregation (e.g., Good Judgment Open) or betting markets (e.g., Predictit, Iowa Electronic Markets).