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  • Based on established forecasting principles
  • Highly accurate election forecasts since 2004
  • Widely published in the scientific literature
2024 U.S. presidential election

Popular vote forecast

PollyVote has accurately predicted the U.S. presidential popular vote since 2004. The PollyVote combines poll numbers with predictions from expectations, models, and naive forecasts. Learn more about how it works and its track record in Graefe (2023)