US 2024 -> Expectations -> Expert judgment

Cook Political Report

  • Founded in 1984
  • Provides independent, non-partisan analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends

Who will be president?

Presidential election forecasts based on Electoral College ratings provided by the Cook Political Report

Who will control the Senate?

Senate election forecasts based on Senate Ratings provided by the Cook Political Report

Who will control the House?

House of Representatives election forecasts based on House ratings provided by the Cook Political Report

Forecast calculation

The Cook Political Report assigns qualitative ratings for various elections, utilizing a 7-point scale ranging from Safe Democratic to Safe Republican. Cook’s ratings cover presidential elections and races for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, and state governor. PollyVote converts these ratings into probabilities for the parties to win a particular race.

Treating these probabilities as independent forecasts, PollyVote conducts 100,000 simulations each for presidential, Senate, and House elections. This process generates forecasts for Electoral College Votes, Senate and House seat distributions, and estimates the parties‘ likelihood of winning each branch of government.