Who will be president?
Presidential election forecasts based on combined expert judgment of Electoral College ratings
Who will control the Senate?
Senate election forecasts based on combined expert judgment of Senate ratings
Who will control the House?
House of Representatives election forecasts based on combined expert judgment of House ratings
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections assigns qualitative ratings for various elections, ranging from Safe Democratic to Safe Republican. PollyVote converts these ratings into probabilities for the parties to win a particular race.
PollyVote then averages these probabilities across forecasters for each individual race to calculate the combined expert judgment for that race.
Treating these probabilities as independent forecasts, PollyVote conducts 100,000 simulations each for presidential, Senate, and House elections. This process generates forecasts for Electoral College Votes, Senate and House seat distributions, and estimates the parties‘ likelihood of winning each branch of government.