US 2024 -> Expectations -> Crowd forecasting


  • Prediction market platform
  • Research project of Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
  • Offers election markets for national and state-level outcomes

Electoral College Forecast

PredictIt offers a range of markets that allow its users to bet on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. When it comes to forecasting the Electoral College Vote, the PollyVote draws on information from two of those markets.

What will be the Electoral College margin in the 2024 presidential election?

In this market, there are 16 contracts, each representing a different range for the electoral vote margin in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election. The price of a contract reflects the likelihood of the final election result falling within that specific margin range. PollyVote then translates the latest traded prices of these contracts into a comprehensive forecast for the Electoral Vote outcome. 80%-confidence intervals around these forecasts are based on PredictIt forecasts of who will win the Electoral College.

Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?

Within this market, individual contracts are available for each political party, and the price of each contract reflects the likelihood of that party securing the Electoral College Vote. PollyVote utilizes the most recent traded prices of these contracts to generate a forecast indicating the respective candidates‘ chances of winning the overall election.