Forecasting the 2024 U.S. presidential popular vote
The Iowa Electronic Markets run two types of markets to predict the popular vote results in U.S. presidential elections. The Vote Share Market predicts the candidates‘ final vote shares, while the Winner-Takes-All Market predicts who will likely win the majority of votes.
In the U.S. Presidential Vote Share Market, participants predict and wager on the percentage of votes each candidate will receive. Each candidate has a corresponding contract that pays out a dollar for every percentage point of the total votes they secure in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. This mechanism ensures that the contract prices directly mirror the anticipated vote shares for each candidate. Subsequently, these normalized percentages, totaling 100, enter the PollyVote’s betting markets component.
In the U.S. Presidential Winner-Takes-All Market, participants place bets on the party whose candidate they believe will secure the most votes in the election. Each candidate has an associated contract that pays out $1 if that candidate wins the majority of votes and $0 if the opponent garners more votes. Consequently, the prices of these contracts directly indicate the perceived likelihood of each candidate winning the majority of votes.
Forecasting the 2024 U.S. Congressional Elections
The Iowa Electronic Markets run three winner-take all markets to predict which party will take control of both chambers of congress. The PollyVote collects forecasts from two of those markets, namely the House market and the Senate market.
Control of the House
In the 2024 U.S. House Control Winner-Takes-All Market, people can bet on which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2024 elections. There are three options to bet on: Republicans gaining seats, Republicans keeping control but not gaining seats, or Republicans losing seats.
Control of the Senate
In the 2024 U.S. Senate Control Winner-Takes-All Market, people can bet on which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2024 elections. There are three options to bet on: Democrats holding more than 50 seats (or 50 seats plus the Vice Presidency), Republicans holding more than 50 seats (or 50 seats plus the Vice Presidency), or neither party having more than half the seats.